Virtual Virus Pool

Engineering Potpourri Pat's Pub
#1

It greatly saddens me to see the American refusal of addressing the Coronovirus. Their refusal to isolate, mask up, test and trace is putting not only themselves at risk, but also, the rest of the world. So far, over 160,000 Americans have needlessly died. Their actions, or lack thereof, are also delaying the opening up of their economy.

I recall the old Harley tee shirt that had the Harley logo with the phrase ‘Live Free or Die’ on it. This should be revised to ‘Live Free and Die’.

The expression, ‘if life gives you lemons, make lemonade’ comes to mind, and to this end, I’m proposing a Virtual Virus Pool.

Anyone can contribute, say, $10 virtual dollars to enter. There is no real money involved, only virtual money; the winner, depending on how successful this pool is, could become a virtual millionaire. The object of the pool is to guess a date where the total American fatality hits 200,000. The number being determined by the John Hopkins database. If numerous individuals have the same date, then the ‘winnings’ will be split equally with any ‘left over’ funds going to the Simpliengineering coffee cup fund.

To kick it off, my guess is: September 20, 2020.

Dik

2 Likes
#5

Doesn’t matter how often you say it, that chain link fence is not going to keep mosquitoes out of your yard.

It’s a poor analogy… but, if the mesh were mosquito netting size, it might keep a few out.

Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization now recommend cloth masks for the general public, but earlier in the pandemic, both organizations recommended just the opposite. These shifting guidelines may have sowed confusion among the public about the utility of masks.

But health experts say the evidence is clear that masks can help prevent the spread of COVID-19 and that the more people wearing masks, the better.

Catch the article at:

The CDC originally didn’t recommend masks because they were afraid people would hoard them and keep them from those that really needed them.

I pointed to Italy because they were WAY ahead of the curve in terms of reported cases, mortality rates, and unreasonable government reactions.

Just relatively recently… in the beginning, Italy did very poorly with some of the highest mortality rates in Europe.

Your graph is “confirmed cases”, and yes the U.S. has conducted 3 times the tests per capita as any other nation in the world. Likely that there would be more confirmed cases.

That’s incorrect. The US is down at #18, behind: UK, Russia, Singapore, Denmark, Malta, Channel Islands, Cayman Islands, Bermuda, Iceland, Bahrain, UAE, Falklands, Gibraltar, Monaco, Faeroe Islands, and Luxembourg, in tests per million population and in total testing, second to China. Many of the above are small countries and don’t really qualify in the count. It should be noted that tests that take a week to process are useless… so likely way down when considering a real count. Only the Donald thinks you are 3 times ahead.

There is also the artifact that if you test positive you are required (in most states, this really is a state-by-state reaction, Federal reaction is against the law) to have another test every day until you test negative and then for 14 days after that–EVERY positive test is counted, one sick body, at least 21 confirmed cases.

That’s really foolish when your entire nation or the world is in risk; a consequence is that many countries are refusing to allow Americans in. When they taught you that freedoms were the most important thing in life, they forgot a very important part of it. With freedoms comes an immense responsibility. The educators seem to have missed that part of it.

I’m just going to ignore the rest of your political noise (“the Donald”, I don’t like that from Americans, it really angers me from foreigners), you may believe whatever you want, but trusting the numbers is a good way to be led by the nose.

Not if you appreciate the numbers and have a reasonable understanding of what they mean. As far as the Donald is concerned there are probably a couple of other foreigners that use it, or worse… I usually use D^2, or D^3.

Just in…

#7

Thanks… I’d seen that study… being diabetic, slightly overweight and over 70, I tend to err on the side of caution. Almost any mask is better than no mask with bandanas being at/near the bottom of the list.

Dik

#9

They are still learning about this critter… some doctors are of the opinion it is airborne… even tinier droplets…

#10

@dik I read the article that you posted, and I followed ALL of the links and read those articles. Altogether it is a load of arm waving and quotes from “experts” who have absolutely no data to back up their opinions.

As to the article about CNN polls, I never ever care about “consensus science”.

#11

The experts have it right and you have 170,000 deaths to confirm it… and with school opening it’s going to get much worse. If Trump had have acted on this in February, he would have saved most of the lives and the economy would be able to open… it’s still not over and there is no handle on when it will.

Open your eyes and see what the real medical experts are saying… take a look around you and see the bodies piling up… and make up your own mind. I suspect my date is pretty close… give or take a day or two.

As I noted on Margolis’ site in January… it’s far better to err on the safe side… this was before there were any American victims… and, they are victims of government negligence.

Check this site for the difference between Canada and the US.

Our #1 is below your #48…

Dik

#12

Possibly part of your reason for ‘no concern’:

https://thebulletin.org/2020/07/a-pandemic-of-bad-science/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=MondayNewsletter08172020&utm_content=DisruptiveTechnology_BadScience_07202020#

Dik

#13

“Pandemic of Bad Science” says it very well.

#14

I have worked in 38 countries on every continent except Antarctica. Up until 2008 I was continually amazed at the depth of knowledge that my contacts in other countries had with regard to U.S. Politics. It was amazing. Engineers in third world countries could discuss our Electoral College knowledgeably, they knew who the Speaker of the House was, they knew the general political philosophy of the President and when his term was up. Awesome, when too many Americans didn’t know that Indonesia was a country.

Then came the 2008 whitewash of all the major news media. In the last 12 years when I go overseas I hear “The Donald” and “Orange Man Bad” and impeachment, and Twitter, etc. When I dig into the discussion it is clear that the information they have been getting since 2008 has been bend, folded, spindled, and mutilated. Then I turn on the TV in my room and see CNN, MSNBC, AP clips, that will not criticize any liberal regardless of their reprehensible actions or give any credit for good results from any conservative.

When I ask people in other countries what President Trump should do about the Pandemic I hear Unconstitutional action after Unconstitutional action. He should have “shut the country down in January”–but he does not have that authority, it rests with the states, and the little bit of direct action that he did have the authority to take, he took and the Congress fought him tooth and nail.

President Trump did “act in February” within his Constitutional Authority and stopped air traffic from China–he was sued by 25 different groups who claimed that stopping those flights infringed on people’s Constitutional right of assembly, plus Congress introduced a number of bills to prevent the actions he took. But that is not on the international news. Just Pelosi railing about his “lack of action”–that is on every channel.

Your article has lists of confirmed cases, nothing about number of tests those numbers represent. If you test 5% of the people in Alberta, and 65% of the People in Montana, and both populations have a 15% infection rate, then dang if Montana will show a higher per capita (or per million population) infection rate as an artifact of wildly different testing rates. The data has been manipulated to be unrecognizable as representing anything at all. I’m happy for you that you “believe it”, but I still contend that “belief is the acceptance of a concept in the absence of data”. You don’t have to “believe” scientific data, you only need to be able to evaluate the data collection methodology and data integrity–neither of which will pass any objective sniff test.

2 Likes
#15

Awesome, when too many Americans didn’t know that Indonesia was a country.

It says something about your education system. It goes deep, the Donald didn’t know that Finland was a country…

“ The Donald” and “Orange Man Bad” and impeachment, and Twitter, etc. When I dig into the

The guy’s an embarrassment and does a great disservice to Americans.

When I ask people in other countries what President Trump should do about the Pandemic I hear Unconstitutional action after Unconstitutional action. He should have “shut the country

Your constitution is an excuse for not taking action. Tell the cop on the beat that Stop and Frisk is contrary to the 14th Amendment and see where that gets you. The purpose of your 2nd Amendment is to prevent a government from taking forceful power… by rights, it should entitle people to have the same weaponry as the state. It’s not going to happen; those in power use the Constitution as they see fit. If ‘the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed’ why are there likely 100,000 laws infringing on the simple statement; it shouldn’t be that difficult to understand.

As it suits them, ‘Live Free and Die’; it’s your choice. [Added]It’s not really your choice when you are putting the rest of the world at risk, due to your indulgence [Added]. Had the problem been addressed, properly, in February, your businesses would be open for business… the manner in which it has been handled, safe opening is anybody’s guess. I’m expecting a huge spike because of schools opening… and I will ‘eat crow’ if I’m wrong. It’s just a matter of waiting a few weeks to see what happens. As I noted, there is a huge responsibility that comes with freedom; it’s a real double edged sword.

President Trump did “act in February” within his Constitutional Authority and stopped air traffic from China–

too little, too late, and mis-directed. It was’t for a few months after that he stopped people from Europe… the source of American infections. None of the infections came directly from China. Politically he uses the China flu… the origin. We don’t refer to the Spanish flu as the Kansas flu… the origin. It’s politically convenient.

Your article has lists of confirmed cases, nothing about number of tests those numbers represent. If you test 5% of the people in Alberta, and 65% of the People in Montana, and both populations have a 15% infection rate, then dang if Montana will show a higher per capita (or per million population) infection rate as an artifact of wildly different testing rates.

You missed it… the tests are based on per million people; this levels the playing field. Because of the difference in populations, I noted that smaller countries should be excluded. If a country has a population of 10 people, 1 test will indicate that 10% of the population was tested. [Added] Carrying this to extremes, if you did absolutely no testing, you would have absolutely no cases, and 170,000 Americans ‘popped off’ for no reason at all. Testing is part of containment and that’s it. Test results have to be available within a couple of days at most. Getting results back in a week is useless and impossible to determine contacts. For a rich technological country, the US has failed terribly at testing… when you see lineups stretching for miles with results available in a couple of weeks… your death toll shows this is not working [Added].

The data has been manipulated to be unrecognizable as representing anything at all. I’m happy for you that you “believe it”, but I still contend that “belief is the acceptance of a

One of the sites I use is:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The data is not manipulated and you can see how the individual countries and states are doing. Looking at the ‘real’ numbers the US is doing very poorly. There is integrity to the data and it’s consistent with the John Hopkins data… as of this afternoon sometimes the Americans have lost 177, 211 citizens, and the situation is not improving.

1 Like
#17

Wow… I think I’m going to frame this… Your reply speaks volumes about your education system… As an aside, did the Russians have any involvement in WW2?

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Montana nearly 4x the number of new cases as Alberta, on a per million basis to level the population issue… They are similar in testing with Montana at 195201 per 1M and Alberta at 196781 per 1M, remembering that for testing to be effective, the results have to be available within a day or so…

and, Montana nearly 26 down in the tests per million for the state, too… They are 26 for the number of new cases, too… Coincidental, sure, if you say so… stay safe and healthy.

Dik

1 Like
#19

It’s ok dik, he doesn’t represent the majority viewpoint in the US, and yes trump has the blood of many, many, unnecessary deaths on his hands.

I’ll take your challenge and beat you, while perhaps not winning, by going for 9/19/20.

#20

Thanks… I was thinking that I would win by default… I thought of the pool because I was concerned about the lack of response and wanted to ‘jar’ someone to the reality of it… not that I don’t like Americans.

Dik

#21

@davidbeach, and I suppose that you feel that you speak for the majority of Americans? I do believe that that one will be settled on November 3.

#25

September 22

#26

@zdas04

Yes, and they are there, at a given time, whether you test or not. If 100 people in a random sample of 1000 test positive; it is likely that 1000 people in a similar random sample of 10,000 will test positive. As your sample size gets larger, your precision gets better. The actual number of infected persons does not change. Your president does not seem to grasp this.

Depending on your sample, some groups are more likely to have a greater number who test positive… think of confined federal prisoners or people on a cruise ship. Isolation is generally good… as long as no one is infected. If only one is infected, the group is at risk, and it shows.

As I’ve noted, to get around the coronavirus, it is necessary to isolate, mask up, test and trace. All four items are essential, depending where you are in the cycle.

Correct and timely testing just simply tells you that you have been exposed and gives you an indication of how much of the population is infected. Testing has to be timely due to the exponential nature of people contacts. Given a day or two, it can likely be determined who you have been in contact with and who they have been in contact with. This is the important part about testing. Given a week or two, the permutations are so complex it is likely impossible to determine the whole set of contacts. Testing, other than telling you that you have been exposed and should be isolated, it is not very useful at containing the virus other than identifying contacts.

Dik

#27

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#28

Beach, as in going to the; not beech as in sitting under the…

#29

It is undeniable clear that the number of case is the number of case, even if that number isn’t known or even readily knowable. It is what it is. With no testing there are no known cases, but the total remains exactly the same. With 100% testing there would be a knowledge of all cases, but the number would change. Anywhere in between the number of known cases, and the number of assumed cases, vary depending on many different factors. But the number of cases remains entirely unchanged and unaffected.

Maybe there’s a problem of understanding/recognizing the difference between known case (affected by testing) and actual cases (is what it is). Seems easy enough to understand, but even the squatter at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave is clueless to grasp difference as is the other poster.

#30

@davidbeach It gets really tricky with the samples and they are not homogeneous. In Asia where the testing is more extensive they have a more homogeneous sample. In the US, the testing is representative of several distinct groups and the same comparison cannot be made. This is further complicated because the testing occurs at different times for different reasons. I haven’t been tested yet, but tomorrow morning, if I wanted to, I could make arrangements and within a couple of hours, I could have my test. I bet you cannot make the same statement. I check my blood pressure, pulse, blood oxygen and temperature a couple of times a day and record it on an excel sheet… have done this for several months. BP typically about 130/75, pulse about 75, SATs about 98, and temp low 36C.

I’m old and cranky vulnerable, and only venture out a couple of times a week for food or supplies; I feel reasonable secure and travel by bus. About 75% of the passengers and myself wear masks, and at the store maybe 80% wear masks. Sanitiser is available at all stores and everyone entering uses it. I have my own sanitiser that my son cobbled together and I carry a silicone bottle of it in my pack… he uses 99% isopropyl alcohol (that and coffee filters I use for cleaning heat paste from processors), aloevera gel and a little hydrogen peroxide… works great. It’s easy, a little inconvenient, but you get into the habit pretty quick… I don’t know what regimen others use, but I feel realtive safe and relatively comfortable. Unless I’m busy, I’ll go for a walk in the neighbourhood each evening (no/few people around)… and, I’m starting to seize up slowly.

I have a responsibility of not infecting my fellow Winnipeggers… something that seems to be missing (here in Canada, too).

Dik